April 2011 Market Information Archive
April 11, 2011
MARKET RECAP
Are delinquency and foreclosure rates really falling? Based on this past week's data releases, it appears they are.
Hope Now, an alliance of mortgage servicers and home-retention counselors, reports that the number of loans classified 60 or more days delinquent fell to 2.78 million mortgages in February from 2.95 million in January. Freddie Mac reports that less than 4 percent of its single-family home loans are at least three payments behind or heading into foreclosure, which is less than half the year-ago rate.
Two more government agencies – the Office of the Comptroller of Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision – offer more proof that delinquencies and foreclosures are on the mend. They report that the percentage of mortgages classified as seriously delinquent fell in all four quarters of 2010, while seriously delinquent mortgages at the end of the year dropped to a level unseen since the second quarter of 2009.
The detractors remain unconvinced: they counter that last year's moratorium on foreclosures has skewed the numbers, and that delinquencies and foreclosures are set to rise. Even the OCC and OTS say that they expect foreclosure activity to increase in 2011 as moratoriums thaw.
That could very well be the case, but we think there is more at work here than just a thawing of moratoriums. Payroll employment and economic growth have posted strong gains over the past few months. That means more people are able and willing to service their obligations, including mortgage obligations.
Pricing could be the wild card in the delinquency-foreclosure trend. Admittedly, the news on national home prices has been weak over the past couple months. However, real estate is local. Home prices in West Virginia are up over 5 percent year-over-year, and they're up over 4 percent in New York and North Dakota . The usual suspects – Arizona , Florida , Michigan – have posted double-digit declines. That said, Arizona and Florida were two of the most overbuilt states; Michigan is one of the most economically depressed. They're not representative of most real estate markets.
Therefore, we will stick by our guns: stable and improving prices will prevail. We are encouraged by the sharp decline in the rental vacancy rate, to 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2011, which suggests to us that excess supply is being absorbed. In fact, the vacancy rate is back to early 2008 levels, and is not far above the rate in 2006 (around 5.7 percent). As the vacancy rate falls, rents will rise and this will help support home prices.
Economic |
Release |
Consensus |
Analysis |
International Trade |
Tues., April 12, |
$43.5 Billion (Deficit) |
Moderately Important. Rising energy prices has pushed the deficit higher in recent months. |
Import Prices |
Tues., April 12, |
2.0% |
Important. Food and energy are responsible for most of the increase. |
Mortgage Applications |
Wed., April 13, |
None |
Important. Purchase applications hit a 12-month high, portending an improving sales outlook. |
Retail Sales |
Wed., April 13, |
0.4% |
Important. Sales are flattening, but remain up overall on rising price inflation. |
Producer |
Thurs., April 14, |
All Goods: 0.7% (Increase) |
Important. Producers are showing less willingness to absorb higher energy costs. |
Consumer |
Fri., April 15, |
All Goods: 0.4% (Increase) |
Very Important. Prices rising at the current rate will pressure interest rates to go higher. |
The Wise Words of Ludwig von Mises
Who in the world is Ludwig von Mises? He was an Austrian economist who was known for his contrarian views on how markets and people work. Mises had many insightful views on business. Here's one: “ It is not correct foresight as such that yields profits, but foresight better than that of the rest. The prize goes only to the dissenters, who do not let themselves be misled by the errors accepted by the multitude.”
Long-time readers will recognize a Misesian theme in some of our writings. For the past year, we've been counseling people to act, and not to wait until all signs point up, because when everything looks positive (or when everything looks negative), the multitude is in control.
We argue that today a “multitude” of negativity still pervades the market, making it a buyer's market. (We could have said there was a “multitude” of positivity in 2006, which made it a seller's market.) The problem is, it's difficult to stand against the multitude, even though it's often in our best interest to do so. Most people simply find it too uncomfortable to separate themselves from the crowd and look past today's problems to today's opportunities.
Fortunately, to be a successful dissenter, we only have to be mostly correct, not completely. We feel mostly correct in saying that buying real estate at today's prices and at today's rates will prove very profitable a few years from now.
April 4, 2011
MARKET RECAP
The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index always attracts a good deal of media attention. This month's edition was no different. In fact, because of a strong pessimistic bias, it probably drew more attention than it should have.
Once again, falling home prices elevated fears of a double-dip recession in the home-buying market and a longer slog toward recovery than once anticipated. According to Case-Shiller, the average sale price of single-family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1 percent from December and 3.1 percent from a year ago. Only two areas – San Diego and Washington – recorded price increases year-over-year.
We offer our usual caveats with the Case-Shiller index: For one, it's two months in arrears. Recent data on home prices have been less dour. In addition, 20 metropolitan areas is hardly a complete picture. Real estate is much more localized than it was during the recession. Even within major metropolitan areas, we see differences in pricing trends. So, yes, on a national level prices have fallen, and have fallen 31 percent since the 2006 highs. However, prices, like mortgage rates, can go only so low, and there isn't much room on the downside, as many local markets have already shown.
It's also worth noting that the pending home sales index rose 2.1 percent in February, which is encouraging when considering how miserable the weather was in February. What's more, the pending home sales index has trended higher since bottoming in June, with contract activity 20 percent above the low point. More activity isn't a price panacea, but it helps.
Shadow inventory has been the counterclaim, because it continues to apply downward pricing pressure. The good news is that shadow inventory is improving. CoreLogic reports that 1.8 million properties make up the shadow inventory of foreclosures, but that's down 11 percent from a year ago. We expect this inventory to dissipate further, thanks to robust economic growth and a pickup in job creation and wage growth.
Low financing rates will also help the liquidation process. A quote below 5 percent on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains the norm. To be honest, the norm has held longer than we had expected. That's a good thing, to be sure, but it does tend to induce complacency and procrastination at times.
Buyers these days have to balance high inventory levels against the likelihood of higher mortgage rates. Excess supply is a persuasive argument to house shop at a leisurely pace. However, just because rising prices aren't an immediate concern doesn't mean rising mortgage rates aren't. We noted in last week's commentary that buyers have the best of both worlds – low mortgage rates and low home prices. We doubt we will be saying that this time next year.
Economic |
Release |
Consensus |
Analysis |
Federal Reserve |
Tues., April 5, |
None |
Important. The minutes are expected to reveal a growing bias toward higher interest rates. |
Mortgage Applications |
Wed., April 6, |
None |
Important. Though lagging slightly over the past couple weeks, purchase applications remain in an uptrend. |
Consumer Credit |
Thurs., April 7, |
$3 Billion (Increase) |
Moderately Important. Growth in non-revolving credit reflects increasing consumer confidence in the economy. |
Wholesale Trade |
Fri., April 8, |
1.0% (Increase) |
Moderately Important. Businesses continue to build inventory in anticipation of rising consumer demand. |
Is It Really Only A Matter of Time?
Faithful readers of these missives know that we've been saying that it's a matter of time before mortgage rates head higher (which puts us in the majority opinion). Indeed, since November, rates have headed higher, but not as high as many, including us, would have thought. Granted, we were right in saying that rates holding under 4 percent were unlikely, but that was an easy call. Four percent simply isn't sustainable when inflation is the norm.
Inflation is the reason we still think rates are headed higher. Many market watchers have been lulled into a false sense of security because consumer and producer prices – though rising in the past two months – haven't spiked out of control.
There are many variables that go into prices – productivity gains, technology, consumer demand – all of which can offset the increase in money supply that has occurred over the past two years. It can't last forever. If we peruse any long-term chart of consumer and producer prices, we see that prices rise persistently higher. As a corollary, when we peruse a chart of the US dollar, we see a persistent drop in value.
Eventually, all the new money in circulation will begin chasing consumer goods, and then we will see an increase in price inflation. We expect the bond market to anticipate this event, which is why we think mortgage rates will head higher before price inflation becomes more of a front-burner issue.